Probably more the former, due to a combination of a couple of factors,
not the least of which is the current economy.

This also appears to have finally been the "straw that breaks the
camel's back" in terms of industry starting to rebel against the DEMA
Good Olde Boys Club - see:

<http://www.xray-mag.com/en/content/petition-dive-industry-
reunification>

and:

<http://unifieddiveindustry.com>

The basic response from DEMA's Board of Directors is to play games
with CYA from behind their lawyers, and denial over the members'
concerns of poor representation, poor communication, and a lack of
transparency.   This is a deathknell for diveshops to receive
marketing support from the organization which they pay into - -
they're probably better off to drop their DEMA Membership ASAP and
buying local advertising...if nothing else, hitting DEMA in their own
pocketbook might finally send a message that they'll understand.

The second part of this is that ever since the Standards got watered
down (the latest phrase I've heard was:  "so easy that a 10 year old
can do it in a weekend"), which destroys any niche appeal marketing of
the product.  The result is that the 70s and 80s were the heyday of
diving, but OW certs have declined since the 90s, which means no
"fresh young blood" and that it is statistically inevitable for the
average diver age to methodically increase every year, as well as to
shrink in size due to age and attrition - - in a nutshell, the
demographic is going the way of your Father's Oldsmobile:  in 10
years, the diver population will for the most part be 10 years older
and of course, also be smaller.

(what a timely reminder of the aging demographic)   Hope you're
enjoying retirement.

Plus there's also a lot of local diving that's in decline.   This is a
consequence of DEMA shifting its focus to the travel industry years
ago, and the consequence is that the few new young divers aren't
necessarily equipped or interested.

-hh