Steve, I appreciate that news. I'm heading to Wakatobi in early 2005 and am
taking Thai Air, which will route us thru Bangkok. Our plan was to pop down
and stay a few days in Phuket, before heading to Bali for the flight to
Wakatobi (Thai Air does not charge extra when you stay over).

I'll keep an eye on the events over there to see if the Muslim south is too
risky when our time comes to head over. The other choice is to stay on the
mainland and enjoy that. Any advice on Bangkok or the surrounding area?

Steve Kramer <steve@seatraveler.com> wrote in message

Hi Steve,
Sorry to hear this as I am in the middle of planning 2 trips to
Thailand in 2005!
I remember that the Pattani United Liberation Org. said the same after
the troubles in May. Up until now all of the problems seem to have
been contained to the southern province. Do you think it may now
escalate to the tourist areas?
Mike.

Great, those are the three places we're staying in December.  Can't you
convince them to try Koh Tao or Chiangmai instead, or will they leave me
alone if I wear a "Friend of Steve Kramer" T-shirt?

Here's a little more information from a travel advisory service:

     Security Contact              Americas                (1) (215)
245 4707               Asia/Pacific               (65) 6338 7800                    
Europe/Africa              (44) (20) 8762 8008               Paris,
France                (33) (0) 155 633 155                                               

                       

                         
   Security Special Advisory          
                                                 
                                                     Thailand                              
October 28, 2004 05:47 GMT                                                      

Insurgent Group Warns of Attacks in Bangkok

                          A local insurgent group operating in
southern Thailand has warned it will conduct large-scale attacks in the
Thai capital of Bangkok in retaliation against the death of 84 Muslim
men during and after a clash with policemen on Monday, 25 October, in
Narathiwat province.

According to local reports, the Pattani United Liberation Organisation
(PULO) threatened to stage attacks in Bangkok. The PULO website
reiterated a call for a "holy war" (jihad) against Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra. Intelligence agencies have also uncovered a plan by
militant groups to attack government buildings and assassinate at least
40 people including government personnel and informants. It was not
clear if these attacks would be carried out in the capital or in the
southern provinces.

Police defused a fertilizer bomb in a grocery store in Narathiwat early
today. The homemade device weighed nearly 4.5 kilograms (10 lbs) and
was packed in a plastic box.

The threats and the latest bombing attempt follow the 25 October clash
between policemen and protestors demanding the release of six Muslim
men detained on suspicion that they sold their firearms to local
insurgents. The clash resulted in the death of six persons. At least 44
persons including 30 protestors and 14 security personnel were injured.
Security forces arrested more than 1,000 Muslim men immediately after
the clash and placed them on military trucks. At least 78 men died of
suffocation inside the trucks while they were being transported to
another province for detention. At least 60 men are still missing.

                                                     
SOS Comment

                          While PULO is the largest insurgent group
operating in southern Thailand, it has not launched major attacks in
the region nor has it attacked Bangkok. Most of its attacks have been
small-scale bombings using improvised explosive devices (IED) using
Powergel or a limited amount of fertilizers, as well as targeted
shootings of government personnel, security forces and civilians
suspected to be informants.

Nevertheless, we recommend a conservative approach, and suggest that
the group's warning be taken seriously. Given the recent resurgence of
violence in the south, it is not an improbable scenario that PULO has
taken the necessary steps to gain access to the necessary expertise and
materials to conduct large-scale bombings. In March this year,
suspected insurgents stole between 1.4 and 1.65 tonnes of ammonium
nitrate in 66 sacks; 56 sticks of dynamite; and 176 detonators from a
quarry in Muang district in Yala province. Analysts warned that the
stolen explosives were enough to level a large building. In April, Thai
authorities announced it had recovered roughly half of the stolen
ammonium nitrate, a raw material for explosives, but a substantial
amount of explosives remain in the hands of suspected insurgents.
Insurgents have also demonstrated the capability to remotely detonate
small explosive devices, a skill which could be tranferred to the use
of larger devices.

Of immediate concern, there remains a heightened risk of retaliatory
attacks by insurgents in the provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, and
Yala. Tak Bai district, in Narathiwat, may continue to be a focal point
for further violence. The latest incident has fueled outrage among
Muslim militants and could elicit increased local sympathy for the
insurgents' cause among local communities. The incident has also
increased existing tension between the government and its militant
Muslim population in the south. The likelihood of further violence and
unrest in southern Thailand is high.

It is assessed that the most likely scenario in the short-term is a
series of small-scale retaliatory bombings targeting government
facilities and possibly public areas such as markets, commercial
establishments or seaports, where several bombings have occured in
recent months. The pattern of assassinations is also likely to
continue, with an increased focus on security force personnel. There is
no clear indication at this time that insurgents are mobilizing to
launch a large-scale attack in Bangkok in the near-term, but it would
not be prudent to assume that an attack on the capital cannot occur.

                                                     
Travel Advice

                          SOS advises its members of the following:

1. Travel to Thailand can proceed but extra safety precaution should be
taken in Bangkok and major cities.

2. Travelers should avoid visiting the southern most Thai provinces of
Narathiwat, Yala, and Pattani.

3. SOS Members are advised to avoid churches, bars, nightclubs, cafes,
shopping malls and other locations that are PRIMARILY FREQUENTED by
foreigners in southern Thailand, as these are potential targets for
terrorist attack elsewhere in Thailand.

4. Basic security precautions should continue to be followed when
traveling. Travel at night or on secondary roads is not recommended in
the more remote parts of Thailand.

5. Maintain vigilance when traveling to all border areas.

SOS members seeking additional information on this situation should
contact the 24-hour SOS Regional Security Center in Singapore on (65)
63387800.